Without a dramatic reduction in our dependence on hydrocarbons, we are doomed; our burning of fossil fuels alone is enough to drive Climate Change forward at an unstoppable rate. However, ethical choices are rarely black and white.

The reality is always lot more complex than the idealised worlds we construct for ourselves (and if anything, we are collectively guilty of ever increasing oversimplification of our worldviews). The current crisis is no exception:

  1. Reducing our dependence on hydrocarbons would mean radical cut in our energy consumption, for they account for 80% of our energy use, great deal of which cannot be easily decarbonised (including industries that themselves are critical to decarbonisation, and the production of fertilisers). This is not happening, and will not happen in a controlled fashion, it would require significant change in the living standards in the West, and there is neither political nor popular will for this — not even the majority of vocal environmentalists are prepared to give up their iPhones, hot showers, non-local diets and central heating.

  2. Not only we are not prepared to cut our energy use, but instead our energy consumption is rising year on year, and we are happy to drive it up for frivolous reasons such as AI. In Scotland we are on track to at least double if not triple our electricity demand in a matter of years, and this increase will not come from renewable sources (it cannot; not least because of the 24/7 reliability requirements of a data centre).

  3. Climate Change is a global phenomenon, but policy-making is decentralised; even if the 5 million of us in Scotland would suddenly go entirely CO2 free, it would make a minuscule difference overall, while all efforts at international cooperation in the regard have failed miserably. Local governments must balance an abstract responsibility to the planet and the future and the concrete responsibilities to their communities in the present.

  4. If not extracting hydrocarbons locally means importing them instead, this comes at a significantly higher environmental cost; this is particularly true of UK’s reliance on liquified natural gas (LNG), which has much higher CO2 footprint than piped gas.

  5. On the other hand, if oil and gas extracted from the North Sea simply ends up exported and sold at cartel controlled prices, this provides minimal benefits to the people of Scotland.

Reflecting on the above, I cannot but conclude that,

  1. Since controlled, non-catastrophic, ending of the environmental and associated (meta)crisis will not happen, the primary responsibility of the local government must be to the local community in the present; given that we have now become hostage to adversarial external forces when it comes to energy means making good use of local resources available to us, including Rosebank and Jackdaw,

  2. When allowing further North Sea hydrocarbon extraction, the Government must ensure that the extracted hydrocarbons will be ring fenced for local use, at locally controlled prices; not doing so voids the only possible justification for such an extraction,

  3. To avoid driving up local hydrocarbon use, further extraction requires that the Government would take steps to encourage ‘organic’ decarbonisation, i.e., such that can be easily achieved without significant individual investment; this means slashing prices of electricity to below the price of gas per unit.

  4. If we are to extract more hydrocarbons from the North Sea, we must ensure we have the facilities to process them; this is particularly true of oil. This means brining Grangemouth back to life, with whatever adjustments necessary to make it suitable to processing North Sea type of crude.

There is a significant amount of moral courage that it would take to head down this route; but the fact that the UK Government continues to prevaricate on this matter suggests to me lack of moral backbone. I suspect in the end will get a middle of a road approach: Jackdaw at least will get the nod, but it will come too late to make any difference to the coming winter, and it will be left to the speculators to profiteer from, with no local befit whatsoever — the middle road is usually the simplest, and the most unethical solution of them all.